Fear the Boom and Bust

The end of Tdraconian.com

Lately I have been contemplating the end of Tdraconian.com. Sometimes you have to look at the real numbers and face the facts.

Firstly, the bounce rate has been dwindling each year and very few new visitors are coming by.

In addition, lets face it, with school starting, I will have even less time to post new blog entries.

Lastly, Tdraconian.com was my first attempt to create a website and a blog. It was a long process where the website took many shapes and forms keeping the original HTML look. Times have changed and I think that I need to work on the next version of my website and pick a better more professional name. I never thought that the name Tdraconian will ever catch on or even that people will try to understand its true meaning. It was a 'personal' website and more or less like a journal than anything else. This space will expire in a week and after that anyone coming straight to tdraconian will be forwarded to another website, whose name I will post in a few days.

If this move upsets you, let me know your concerns or advice. I will keep an open mind.

The Strangest Secret

New Year Goals

Each year we set out to make some New Year Resolutions. Then in few weeks, we are back to the same old routine of whimpering, whining and cutting corners. Maybe this year, you want to set goals instead of resolutions? Maybe this year you want to track your progress every step of the way? How about keeping a log, writing your thoughts down and having an accountability partner who you can rely on when you start slipping? Don't make 2010 just another year of mediocrity; Do It!

Was your College Education Worth it?

Source: Online Colleges and Universities

India - The Land of Tiger

Is gold a good investment after all?

From Comprehensive Wealth Management -

"In recent months financial news organizations have been teeming with articles and exposés on gold and the expected large gains in value for that particular asset. For most, the reasoning is that with all the paper money being created by the world’s governments (which is devaluing existing currencies) that inflation must be just around the corner. The high inflationary times of the 70s was what eventually led to gold’s all time high price in the 1980s. Gold buyers obviously are hoping that the current loose monetary policies around the world will lead to another such high inflation scenario. However, gold is not the only asset type that benefits from this situation and in fact, it may not even be the best asset in such a case. Therefore, it is important to determine the timing of when gold may be a prime investment choice, as well as comparable alternatives.
From a portfolio management standpoint, in the theme of falling paper currency values and higher inflation, gold may not always be the best way to invest. The last year has seen a substantial double digit drop in the value of the US dollar yet gold was not the best performing commodity asset. For example:

Agora Financial’s 5 Minute Forecast¹

Gold fared quite poorly when compared to several basic materials (industrial metals) and some agricultural products. Much of this is likely due to increased demand from countries like China. By being invested in silver rather than gold an investor could have made twice as much money this year. The major difference between the two precious metals is that gold does not have much industrial use outside of jewelry manufacture, which limits its value for true business. Silver on the other hand has a variety of industrial uses and, just like gold, also serves as an inflation hedge (protection) or anti-currency investment. If the current trend continues then gold may not be the best material asset to invest in."


"What seems like continuously dropping U.S. dollar value is causing many a sleepless night for foreign holders of the currency. Around the world, “roughly 65% of the total foreign exchange reserves of foreign governments are held in U.S. dollars.”¹ Asian and emerging governments hold especially high amounts of their reserves in dollars. These high reserve amounts and angst over dropping value has led some to call for more diversification in their reserve holdings. This has resulted in “the first time in a quarter century (where) central banks are buying more gold than they’re selling.”³ During the 20 year period between 1980-2000 central bank gold selling was a large inhibitor of upside price movement. Goldman Sachs provides the following synopsis of this situation:

“Although central banks have historically been net sellers of gold, we have witnessed a significant slowdown in the pace of sales since 2008 with the latest data suggesting an outright halt in aggregate sales. Compared to the late 1990s when many central banks viewed gold as a low-yielding asset and their gold sales put downward pressure on gold prices, the more recent movement among central banks is to view gold reserves as an important source of diversification away from the US dollar in their reserve holdings.
Furthermore, emerging market central banks have explicitly stated their intentions to gradually diversify reserves into gold as well as currency reserve assets other than the US dollar. From a positioning point of view, Asian nations as a group hold only a small percentage of their reserves in gold vs. the major European nations holding more than half their assets in gold (56% as of October). China, for example, holds only about 1.49% of its reserve assets in gold and surprised earlier this year when it announced that it had increased its gold holdings by 76% since 2003 to 1,054 tons, mostly from buying from their domestic mine production. Similarly, only 4.7% of Russia’s reserves are in gold and it has stated its intention to increase its gold holdings and has done so by 19% this year alone. Furthermore, the recent announcement that India was to purchase 200 tons of the 403 tons of gold the IMF plans to sell has substantially reduced the outlook for central bank sales in 2010 and 2011. Net, we expect selling by central banks and other official sector institutions to remain near subdued, less than 100 tonnes per year on net (0.25 million toz per month). Should Central Banks continue to be net buyers of gold in the next two years, the upside risk to gold prices would be considerable.”²

Interestingly enough these same central banks are also one of the largest potential risks to gold’s value.
The last gold price spike in the early 1980s ended, “as the dramatic tightening of US monetary policy under Chairman Paul Volcker drove US real interest rates dramatically higher and drove gold prices down substantially.”² Increasing rates normally cause a spike in the valuation of the nation’s currency. A dollar rally would not be a good thing for gold’s value. If the Federal Bank should raise rates, or if the dollar rally’s on its own, it should be expected that gold and similar assets will lose value. Therefore “an earlier than expected tightening of US monetary policy is the primary downside risk to gold.”² Fortunately low interest rates are expected to remain for the extended future. The outlook from Goldman Sachs is that, “the gold price-real interest rate cycle will turn when the US Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates, but do not expect that to happen this year or next.”² In other words, for at least the time being, the risk to gold from this action should be minimal. This opinion is likely formed around the continuing market turmoil and the Feds desire to support growth through low rates. However, everything is always subject to change in the investing world."


Sources:

Mathias, Ian. Gold Forecasts, The New Reserve “Currencies,” Climategate, Alt Energy Investing and More!. Agora Financial’s 5 Min. Forecast. December 2nd, 2009. http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/gold-forecasts-the-new-reserve-currencies-climategate-alt-energy-investing-and-more/

Durden, Tyler. Goldman on Gold: $1,450. www.zerohedge.com. December 3rd, 2009. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-gold-1450oz

Read the rest of the article here

This article made me wonder how I faired in a "booming" economy against those who claim Gold to be the beat all inflationary hedge fund. Well, I found interesting statistics -

If you look closely, overall I only made 24.36% gains much less than gains made by gold but, that is only because my portfolio has 25% bond investment and 75% stocks. Had it been complete stock infusion in my portfolio, the gains would have been 35.22% clearly beating the Gold market gains. At my work 401k, I had made almost 40% gains rendering investment in Gold pretty obsolete in a booming economy scenario. Needless to say, same might not be true in a  bearish economy and with the every country looking at Gold as a tool for diversification, Gold might be going up for a little longer than my funds. Market as they say, is ever in flux.

How much of who you are today is because of your family? According to my wife, it is a lot for an Indian. What about you?

Quote

"Our society at its core does not appreciate that if life spans are going to be 90 or more years, managing money properly through a lifetime is critical. Someday they will."

David Wray, Profit Sharing/401(k) Council of America

Deliverance

The one who is going through fire, how do you tell him the pain will make him pure?

Belief: Something you work hard for

Quote

"He is richest who is content with the least, for contentment is the wealth of nature."

This is interesting

Building a room for Pirates of the Burning Sea

A lot of people wonder how hard or easy it is to create the environment for a Game. Weather it is console or PC, a lot of work is involved before any room ever see the light of a Live game. Our Content and Design Lead wrote a devlog about all the work that's put in to create one room(port battle and fort).

"Defining the Goals for the Space / Brainstorming the Design

This phase is really the most important part of the process for the Design team. Defining the goals at the beginning sets the foundation for all subsequent work. We start by brainstorming and answering a battery of questions to focus on what is most important for the goals of the space. Design, Content and Art departments start working through the questions and generating ideas for the functional and visual aspects of the environment. We discuss some of the high level directives and usually walk away with a rough layout of the environment on a whiteboard or a piece of paper. Then we collect visual references and data to flesh out the design."















Read the rest of the article here, where he talks about how we take the room from Prototype to Production and then finally to test and polish!